← ⛵ Flagship Games RDO Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at ⛵ Flagship Games RDO Store Championship
decks
4
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-8-0
overall winrate
38.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1198
· median 1129
· range 1073–1460
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1172
Q3 1379
1556
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.2% | -26.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Chess | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
